Following the recent Cole Hamels extension, Zack Greinke became the unquestionable prize of the 2012 trade deadline, at least when considering players we know are readily available. The internet, which totally knows everything, recently divulged that Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin was pretty much going to deal his excellent starting pitcher no matter what. It turns out Melvin wasn’t messing around, as he sent Greinke to the Angels in exchange for prospects Jean Segura, Ariel Pena, and John Hellweg on Friday.
Obviously we know how good Greinke is. He’s a true ace who has now put together five straight seasons of excellence. The least valuable season of Greinke’s last five was his injury shortened 2011, a campaign in which he was still worth 3.9 WAR per FanGraphs in just 171 2/3 innings. The 28-year-old starter has already been worth 3.8 WAR this season and owns a 2.51 FIP that is actually the best in baseball among qualifying starters.The other key factor to consider in this trade is that Greinke will hit free agency after this season; there is no guarantee that acquiring him will lead to a long-term commitment. It’s possible Greinke is just a rental, though early reports indicate the Angels intend to keep him around and make him an offer. The organization certainly has the resources to keep Greinke in red, and given his age, durability, and awesomeness, they really should.
Zack Greinke has now worn a wide variety of uniform colors.
The Brewers got three prospects in return for Greinke, though none of them are of the can’t-miss variety. Jean Segura is a 22-year-old shortstop/second baseman who was ranked as the second-best Angels prospect entering the season behind only Mike Trout. Segura’s ceiling is that of a solid overall infielder who will hit for average and maybe a little bit of power. The tall right-hander John Hellweg ranked fourth on Baseball America’s list thanks to a dominant fastball-curveball combination and could turn out to be a big find for the Brewers should he learn to locate his nasty offerings. Ariel Pena is 23-year-old righty currently pitching well in Double-A. He’s struck out 8.74 per nine and walked 3.31 per nine in 114 1/3 innings. Pena’s best career outcome is probably as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
None of the prospects given up in the Greinke deal are huge names, but that doesn’t mean they can’t develop into valuable pieces for a future Brewers team. Should Greinke end up leaving Los Angeles at season’s end, it may be tough to rationalize giving up three of the better prospects in an admittedly depleted farm system. Despite the risk, the Angels are a very good baseball team and Greinke gives them the opportunity to have a particularly dominant playoff rotation. Going for it makes sense, especially if the team really thinks it has the inside track to ink Greinke to a fresh contract. This is yet another move that makes plenty of sense for both teams, as the Angels need to win right away and the Brewers have to stop and retool for a little while.